5  Discount but no Emergence

  1. Discount with no emergence
    • Pricing to achieve a given profit target
    • US Stat/GAAP booking: what a clusterfuck
    • IFRS booking: what a joy, separation of insurance service revenue and finance charge, accretion of discount
    • IFRS reported discount rates and implied discount in reserves
    • Cash flow models: DCF, IRR, NPV; Cummins, Myers-Cohn
    • Robbin’s methods
    • Single policy co. vs. steady state co. vs growing co.; grow at COC for IRR=steady state
    • Maximize growth rate pricing and ergodic model (risk-return consideration)
    • Cost of regulatory capital and the adjusted NPV method (account for financing…)
    • Calibrating to a rating agency model? (Allocations…)
    • Pricing with IRFS free cash flow

5.1 Recap/modernize the Robbin methods

Robbins’s seven methods

  1. CY II offset (to uw provision)
  2. PV offset
  3. CY return on eq/surplus
  4. PVI/PVE
  5. PVCF
  6. RA DCF
  7. IRR on equity

Issues

  • GAAP or Stat or other accounting values
  • Discount rates
  • Target returns
  • Taxes
  • Start from an uw provision? Circular.
  • Surplus flows
  • Treatment of risk
  • Reliance on CY values

5.2 Other

  • Myers-Cohn DCF
  • NCCI IRR
  • These are surely equivalent to a Robbins method?

5.3 Cost of regulatory capital